TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Wild vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Wild, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$439,240

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $439,240 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 584 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa07…2125backed Wild40c66,262$26,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,504.611,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Lightning60c60,000$36,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,999.9867051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ba…d462backed Wild0c37,030$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.031723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Wild45c30,237$13,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,605.0612838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning55c25,719$14,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,587.11,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Lightning55c25,223$13,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,290.3427448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Wild40c17,905$7,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,183.3650049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Lightning59c13,423$7,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,503.412047.5%57 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning58c6,851$3,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,873.911,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Lightning59c6,300$3,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,58361748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Lightning58c6,171$3,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,592.0114954.4%81 W · 68 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Wild40c6,150$2,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,476.289249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Wild40c6,043$2,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,41785250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Wild58c5,371$3,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1104553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x607d…53a1backed Wild39c5,128$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00013446.3%62 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Wild22c4,319$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95043743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lightning49c4,228$2,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.922,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Lightning60c4,010$2,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.130552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Lightning60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Wild40c4,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60044551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Wild31c3,810$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.2360337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Lightning60c3,750$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5005149%25 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning59c3,406$2,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.551,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Wild39c3,333$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.8710850.9%55 W · 53 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Wild39c3,082$1,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.0551550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Wild41c3,000$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2304454.5%24 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a3…1943backed Lightning55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3502853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Wild40c2,900$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.9833652.1%175 W · 161 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wild55c2,708$1,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,496.011,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Wild40c2,596$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.2361950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lightning60c2,515$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.721,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4c…a6a1backed Wild45c2,396$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.611421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.26per pick48cpaid-56.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Wild67c2,269$1,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.5857157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Wild65c2,123$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.4189636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Wild9c2,055$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.4325635.9%92 W · 164 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Lightning59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8201,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Wild39c2,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78027850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Lightning59c2,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.9920450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c6…75adbacked Wild40c2,000$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.9640152.4%210 W · 191 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Lightning60c1,914$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.3633950.1%170 W · 169 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Lightning41c1,902$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.4633234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Wild41c1,855$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.6952050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Wild49c1,740$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.0875251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7687…4c94backed Lightning61c1,700$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+44.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa66…1c5bbacked Lightning61c1,650$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+87.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Lightning56c1,643$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.7436948%177 W · 192 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Wild5c1,570$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.459852.3%313 W · 285 L+34.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ff8…8a76backed Wild41c1,527$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6206245.2%28 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa01c…d9afbacked Lightning60c1,471$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.441668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+45.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x92e7…87a4backed Wild39c1,450$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lightning44c1,446$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.772,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Wild41c1,438$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.5861953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Wild54c1,406$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.481,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9838…2817backed Lightning60c1,376$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.363345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Lightning53c1,290$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.4330259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Wild39c1,282$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Lightning37c1,252$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.3711543.5%50 W · 65 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Wild30c1,249$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38031828.3%90 W · 228 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa0…b86ebacked Lightning61c1,220$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.81266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff9…a78bbacked Lightning60c1,200$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4806262.9%39 W · 23 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Wild78c1,172$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.4142254.3%229 W · 193 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Lightning52c1,135$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.811950.4%60 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Lightning35c1,085$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.762951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Wild41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41038445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Wild39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39062249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0acc…9dc1backed Wild40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40025052.8%132 W · 118 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64ba…b7bfbacked Lightning61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3904060%24 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Wild1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102420.8%2 W · 240 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34c7…e73fbacked Wild39c999.99$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Wild41c960$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.62540%10 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Lightning59c910.68$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.3862346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning52c905.79$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.042,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d1…afd3backed Lightning60c870$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4347…84b3backed Lightning60c857.5$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3433756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2cd…37febacked Wild39c850$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb4e…c3c3backed Wild41c849.98$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.4921534.4%74 W · 141 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Lightning60c840$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33622352.9%118 W · 105 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b54…db07backed Lightning60c833.33$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.336550.8%33 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Lightning59c800.04$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.886549.1%425 W · 440 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6492…c35cbacked Wild39c800$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cf…e53bbacked Lightning61c800$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3121154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Lightning60c783.33$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.334047.5%19 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb29e…d14fbacked Wild39c780$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.21346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6bd1…96a7backed Lightning61c780$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Wild40c771.96$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.781947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ba…0241backed Wild39c770$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.3714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick48cpaid-66.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf756…7d3abacked Wild40c760$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3041136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19ce…d056backed Lightning61c750$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+50.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04d7…2839backed Lightning61c750$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.36per pick52cpaid-72.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x407b…e0fabacked Wild40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…096fbacked Wild41c740$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.41258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…a1f1backed Wild41c736$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.763844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked Lightning78c735.65$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.0115057.3%86 W · 64 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+44.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5bad…614abacked Wild41c731$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.713650%18 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8ef…e9fabacked Lightning61c730$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.7944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Lightning55c727.27$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.272330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-46.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Wild42c710.03$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30055446.4%257 W · 297 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Lightning61c700$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27332648.2%157 W · 169 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9712…0c47backed Lightning59c700$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2875246.2%24 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c4e…a377backed Wild39c699.93$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.