NFL · resolved market
49ers vs. Patriots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x667965f785612624876538361c301d384cbee1a5ce89dc544619e01560403a72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof 49ers, Patriots
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $185,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $207,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Patriots | 17c | 56,664$9,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,622.81 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Patriots | 16c | 11,534$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890.8 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Patriots | 16c | 10,345$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.18 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Patriots | 16c | 9,650$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Patriots | 17c | 5,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc125…15fcbacked Patriots | 18c | 4,941$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…36b3backed Patriots | 16c | 3,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Patriots | 16c | 2,895$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.19 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Patriots | 6c | 2,572$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.86 | 118 | 21.2%25 W · 93 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Patriots | 16c | 2,348$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.68 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…36d4backed Patriots | 17c | 2,343$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.27 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Patriots | 7c | 2,258$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96fa…baadbacked Patriots | 17c | 2,001$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.76 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -60%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Patriots | 17c | 1,765$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Patriots | 17c | 1,018$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.06 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Patriots | 16c | 990.37$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.47 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Patriots | 4c | 966.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Patriots | 17c | 928.48$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.98 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…dd7abacked Patriots | 15c | 855.51$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.86 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc626…2beabacked Patriots | 18c | 833.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…07c3backed Patriots | 18c | 683.33$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Patriots | 16c | 639.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.32 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…39cfbacked Patriots | 16c | 600$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…44afbacked Patriots | 17c | 594.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc61…0a44backed Patriots | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…676abacked Patriots | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed Patriots | 19c | 427.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Patriots | 16c | 399.03$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Patriots | 17c | 351$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…971fbacked Patriots | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Patriots | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37f0…3e25backed Patriots | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Patriots | 18c | 221.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Patriots | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 205 | 57.6%118 W · 87 L | +16.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a78…4d4ebacked Patriots | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Patriots | 11c | 182$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…b599backed Patriots | 18c | 173.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceea…8c07backed Patriots | 19c | 169.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Patriots | 8c | 138.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 217 | 13.8%30 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Patriots | 17c | 125$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 284 | 36.3%103 W · 181 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…5dabbacked Patriots | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…aa6ebacked Patriots | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd7…c1f3backed 49ers | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfed…75f8backed Patriots | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…8eaabacked Patriots | 18c | 87.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Patriots | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Patriots | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…ba78backed Patriots | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.