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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on August 25?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,273
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,190

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,273 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x441a…e9c7backed Yes18c694.35$122 inLost-$121.747845.2%216 W · 262 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes17c654.58$114 inLost-$113.812,23023.8%531 W · 1,699 L+89.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x743d…5abdbacked Yes27c328.11$89 inLost-$88.541250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes18c224.51$41 inLost-$41.073718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes20c190.53$38 inLost-$38.2812,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes15c188.16$28 inLost-$27.8192145.6%420 W · 501 L-29.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes29c95.46$28 inLost-$27.7198952.3%517 W · 472 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes14c92.83$13 inLost-$12.735,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes18c79.19$14 inLost-$14.2310,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75d6…5801backed Yes27c69.26$19 inLost-$18.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed No78c66.33$52 inWon+$14.451235.9%184 W · 328 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff89…5909backed Yes23c50$12 inLost-$11.51315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-52.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c48.16$11 inLost-$11.439,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes24c47.9$11 inLost-$11.353426.5%9 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No77c46.61$36 inWon+$10.728,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes30c44.87$13 inLost-$13.4643947.6%209 W · 230 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x272e…3a34backed Yes30c40$12 inLost-$123834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No77c37.4$29 inWon+$8.711,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa0c…ef83backed No78c34.41$27 inWon+$7.519046.3%88 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No72c30$22 inWon+$8.46,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No77c29.11$22 inWon+$6.714,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No79c25.78$20 inWon+$5.4457158.1%332 W · 239 L-28.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked No76c18.75$14 inWon+$4.546736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No76c18.38$14 inWon+$4.412,46735.7%880 W · 1,587 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.