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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 25?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,232
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,404

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,232 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbbb7…a11abacked No74c204.15$152 inWon+$52.481,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc878…a6f3backed Yes26c199.86$53 inLost-$52.9617045.3%77 W · 93 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes21c195.99$41 inLost-$41.3651235.9%184 W · 328 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes18c158.07$28 inLost-$28.4110730.8%33 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No70c142.4$100 inWon+$42.52,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No76c138.14$105 inWon+$33.442,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes12c133.23$15 inLost-$15.428,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No73c106.56$78 inWon+$28.845,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No75c95.72$71 inWon+$24.44,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes26c92.93$24 inLost-$24.439,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes13c89.34$12 inLost-$11.5519046.3%88 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes17c86.16$15 inLost-$14.6815066%99 W · 51 L+18.9wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+28.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes15c86.05$13 inLost-$12.9112,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes20c69$14 inLost-$13.820838%79 W · 129 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes27c67.86$18 inLost-$1837027.8%103 W · 267 L-0.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No75c65.55$49 inWon+$16.261,06750.7%541 W · 526 L+29.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes20c64.06$13 inLost-$12.9998651.1%504 W · 482 L-49.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26e0…d1d1backed No76c63.39$48 inWon+$15.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes22c60$13 inLost-$13.1546736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes21c56$12 inLost-$11.7672620.4%148 W · 578 L-46.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-53.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No69c52.43$36 inWon+$16.2912,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed Yes27c50.92$14 inLost-$13.5823237.5%87 W · 145 L+30.6wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+79.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes24c48.96$12 inLost-$11.872,25456.9%1,283 W · 971 L+69.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes31c45.56$14 inLost-$1441443.2%179 W · 235 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa087…91f7backed Yes28c45$13 inLost-$12.6520234.7%70 W · 132 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5a…9fadbacked Yes28c41.02$12 inLost-$11.571225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes25c40$10 inLost-$1016734.1%57 W · 110 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No71c31.99$23 inWon+$9.285,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No73c28$20 inWon+$7.561,19650.8%608 W · 588 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec6f…b34fbacked No75c27$20 inWon+$6.8214262.7%89 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No67c25.27$17 inWon+$8.347,59237.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L+96.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd6b…e0f3backed Yes45c23$10 inLost-$10.251957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+23.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No75c20.03$15 inWon+$5.081,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No77c16.9$13 inWon+$3.891,31454%709 W · 605 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb97…603bbacked No72c15.77$11 inWon+$4.467266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed No77c14$11 inWon+$3.2226267.6%177 W · 85 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No77c13$10 inWon+$2.9941274.8%308 W · 104 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.