Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x167843b96d81ae771a00181d3be8a6e41e301c2f9bd931964a7a1166163ccec8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 33c | 224.86$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.29 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 63c | 212$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.11 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 29c | 211.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.87 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 179$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.79 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 137.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 136.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 40c | 113.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 23c | 107.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.01 | 1,000 | 14.8%148 W · 852 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 35c | 99.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d6…5801backed Yes | 26c | 88.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…242fbacked No | 60c | 85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…a494backed No | 65c | 82.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 81.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked Yes | 65c | 77.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 26c | 75.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 35c | 73.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 52c | 66.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 66.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed No | 68c | 64.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 170 | 45.3%77 W · 93 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 62.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 61.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 73c | 60.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 55c | 59.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes | 35c | 53.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 28c | 53.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 60c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 70c | 48.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 48.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 28c | 46.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes | 29c | 46.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 28c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 74c | 44.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 38c | 41.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +15.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +163.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 40.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…5909backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 37c | 35.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked No | 72c | 35.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 32.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 35c | 32.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 37c | 30.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 686 | 58.6%402 W · 284 L | +51.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…8ff6backed Yes | 65c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 43c | 28.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…9fadbacked No | 49c | 26.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…db4fbacked Yes | 39c | 25.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 44c | 25.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 24.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 24.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 71c | 23.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 74c | 22.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 62c | 19.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 256 | 39.8%102 W · 154 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 726 | 20.4%148 W · 578 L | -46.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.