South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-08-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66aa888a613b5738fdfaefdf53460f17801e7c250034368c5b48537519e0ed9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b62…5cc8backed No | 76c | 10,000$7,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,435.94 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 26c | 4,103$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.49 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 18c | 3,757$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.07 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 3,066$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.13 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 25c | 2,383$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.84 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 25c | 2,052$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.22 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb809…2004backed No | 70c | 1,983$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.88 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,726$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.65 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 71c | 1,676$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.5 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 24c | 1,282$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.11 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 24c | 999.97$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 1,670 | 51.8%865 W · 805 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bf…b8e1backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 30c | 387.6$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 24c | 278.62$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…1397backed Yes | 30c | 266.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed No | 76c | 266.58$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 28c | 165.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 1,303 | 50.1%653 W · 650 L | -14.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 29c | 97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 30c | 93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 234 | 53%124 W · 110 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 20c | 89.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 26c | 88.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 673 | 37.1%250 W · 423 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked No | 71c | 84.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 15c | 82.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 200 | 22.5%45 W · 155 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…10dcbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3daa…524bbacked No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked No | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 788 | 56.3%444 W · 344 L | +23.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 75c | 48.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked No | 65c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 76c | 45.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 35c | 39.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 425 | 62.4%265 W · 160 L | +25.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 75c | 14.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 81 | 66.7%54 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked No | 76c | 13.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-08-17?this page
- Will AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Tucumán win on 2026-08-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.