South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Estudiantes vs. CA Barracas Central end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66adfc57ceebfe942368eff24a3579ec820ec206432614a4c1407396dc73032d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 67c | 3,778$2,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.69 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 35c | 2,403$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.88 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 1,280$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.73 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 65c | 870.87$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.26 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 27c | 766.93$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.55 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 23c | 631.1$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.74 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 35c | 472.51$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.38 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 75c | 372.32$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.42 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 65c | 275.55$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.44 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 26c | 190.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked No | 65c | 150.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 20c | 120.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked No | 67c | 109.72$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 68c | 98.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 26c | 89.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 23c | 82.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 26c | 71.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 22c | 67.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 75c | 67.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Yes | 34c | 66.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0348…3d81backed Yes | 27c | 64.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 77c | 49.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…1dafbacked Yes | 36c | 38.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Yes | 28c | 38.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…62ddbacked Yes | 26c | 37.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3365…a5b0backed Yes | 35c | 35.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…4961backed No | 63c | 23.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Estudiantes vs. CA Barracas Central end in a draw?this page
- Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-04-11?No won
- Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.