Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 4 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66b6037c9379118bb6647a32fe0831e6c90d2e30a2b8c2cce5ea96d4537ab360
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shopify Rebellion Blackof M80, Shopify Rebellion Black
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed M80 | 60c | 7,711$4,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,625.51 | 521 | 55.5%289 W · 232 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 40c | 4,401$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,622.76 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 40c | 1,650$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.95 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 55c | 1,111$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.79 | 689 | 49.5%341 W · 348 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf52e…54fcbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 40c | 702.35$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 40c | 622.5$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.5 | 517 | 49.5%256 W · 261 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed M80 | 49c | 553.06$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…2614backed M80 | 71c | 534.94$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.67 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 45c | 522.04$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.27 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9d…f409backed M80 | 54c | 517.54$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 67c | 404.91$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.18 | 452 | 50%226 W · 226 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…48c0backed M80 | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…8313backed M80 | 62c | 397.68$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.5 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a6…f22bbacked M80 | 35c | 332.45$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89ff…a8f2backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 42c | 313$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.54 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked M80 | 31c | 300$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 54c | 186.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…07c7backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 47c | 168.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 43c | 163.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 428 | 40%171 W · 257 L | -22.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…ba12backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 62c | 161.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…bf81backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 54c | 151.09$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 279 | 56.6%158 W · 121 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…3fa0backed M80 | 57c | 139.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed M80 | 40c | 136.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 52c | 116.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 420 | 51.9%218 W · 202 L | -21.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…1ab0backed M80 | 52c | 115.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9b…59eabacked M80 | 9c | 109.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…49bbbacked M80 | 33c | 108.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed M80 | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 147 | 37.4%55 W · 92 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked M80 | 44c | 92.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 450 | 33.8%152 W · 298 L | -35.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…26dabacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 30c | 84.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed M80 | 60c | 83.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…96e8backed M80 | 59c | 72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked M80 | 51c | 61.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 888 | 44.4%394 W · 494 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…febcbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 51.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f3…8adbbacked M80 | 56c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…279bbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 42c | 45.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa03f…7560backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 44c | 43.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d66…aa07backed M80 | 58c | 33.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…6e10backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 62c | 22.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 48c | 20.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed M80 | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 59c | 19.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 4 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 2 PlayoffsM80 won
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 3 WinnerM80 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.