Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 3 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71544b7f42784bc407ad719996167957e4702970c5bd49e933e7b20e5f3062fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- M80of M80, Shopify Rebellion Black
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed M80 | 69c | 24,973$17,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,797.93 | 524 | 55.2%289 W · 235 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 32c | 12,792$4,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,075.14 | 689 | 49.5%341 W · 348 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8e…0a7bbacked M80 | 61c | 5,377$3,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,092.31 | 781 | 62%484 W · 297 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 30c | 4,394$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.6 | 1,422 | 51.3%729 W · 693 L | +49.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 30c | 2,625$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.78 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…5ae1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 30c | 1,656$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.75 | 1,380 | 47.1%650 W · 730 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 35c | 1,486$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.88 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…6fe9backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 37c | 1,115$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 39c | 1,110$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.3 | 226 | 49.1%111 W · 115 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c5…da68backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 30c | 903.33$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 794.75$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.77 | 420 | 35%147 W · 273 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 30c | 620.68$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.2 | 518 | 49.6%257 W · 261 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9d…f409backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 31c | 616.63$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 39c | 607$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.73 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed M80 | 66c | 600$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 320 | 47.8%153 W · 167 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…5c4dbacked M80 | 67c | 558.58$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.71 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed M80 | 65c | 506.48$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.48 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd6…9d99backed M80 | 64c | 412.41$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…3887backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 375.88$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.62 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…eef4backed M80 | 60c | 340$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 23c | 321.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 428 | 40%171 W · 257 L | -22.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31d1…a9f7backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 33c | 294.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 40c | 274.73$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.89 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 38c | 262.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 35c | 261.56$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 174 | 48.3%84 W · 90 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…663bbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 30c | 252.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48ac…b7c9backed M80 | 75c | 237.69$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked M80 | 71c | 230.12$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 1,312 | 43.8%575 W · 737 L | -44.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…07c7backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 35c | 228.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 36c | 223.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 279 | 47.7%133 W · 146 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked M80 | 65c | 221.94$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.95 | 450 | 33.8%152 W · 298 L | -35.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 29c | 217.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 168 | 42.3%71 W · 97 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…e3d3backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 43c | 210.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked M80 | 69c | 188.07$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 1,612 | 45.1%727 W · 885 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…3fa0backed M80 | 59c | 180$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 36c | 168.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 1,281 | 32.1%411 W · 870 L | -67.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 12c | 166.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1,607 | 37.5%603 W · 1,004 L | -75.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 32c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…bf81backed M80 | 64c | 155.45$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 280 | 56.4%158 W · 122 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…dca3backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 141.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89ff…a8f2backed M80 | 59c | 135.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…1ab0backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…ca10backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 41c | 119.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 84.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed M80 | 69c | 83.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca3…be8ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 41c | 77.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f3…8adbbacked M80 | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…8b07backed M80 | 60c | 66.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 62.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa03f…7560backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 38c | 60.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 35c | 60.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 575 | 17.7%102 W · 473 L | -71.7wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked M80 | 62c | 59.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 158 | 42.4%67 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 30c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,365 | 38.9%531 W · 834 L | -60.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…febcbacked M80 | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed M80 | 62c | 47.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 452 | 50%226 W · 226 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 34c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 999 | 45.9%459 W · 540 L | -27.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed M80 | 67c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 147 | 37.4%55 W · 92 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed M80 | 70c | 44.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 322 | 61.5%198 W · 124 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed M80 | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 636 | 52.7%335 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785d…4e88backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 40c | 34.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d9…6b54backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 30c | 33.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…69debacked M80 | 63c | 31.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 519 | 48.4%251 W · 268 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0181…9b5fbacked M80 | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 278 | 50%139 W · 139 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 779 | 29.5%230 W · 549 L | -72.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x602a…9a6ebacked M80 | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 3 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 2 PlayoffsM80 won
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
- Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 4 WinnerShopify Rebellion Black won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.