Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66bcde8bd6370e84feb033a1391c90d686c5205d7b6f6a3b1fc7b7bfbd1798f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 39c | 266.72$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.76 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 46c | 249.36$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.16 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 143.88$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 47c | 128.46$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 43c | 89.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 87.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 30c | 78.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 78.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 76.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 49c | 75.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 76c | 52.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 54c | 51.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 61c | 48.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 61c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 567 | 26.1%148 W · 419 L | -20.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 44.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 72c | 44.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 43.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 55c | 35.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 31.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 75c | 30.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 55c | 29.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 79c | 28.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 55c | 27.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 45c | 27.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb87e…acd3backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -7.8wins | -0.46per pick | 52cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 47c | 24.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 80c | 24.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 75c | 24.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 23.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf178…3c3abacked Yes | 49c | 21.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…fd46backed No | 54c | 21.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 65c | 20.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…8d26backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.