Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec5fc4e1d4805e50d12abf7ef6c7a78adcd6668ff32b0e3fefb051d753b0034d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 30c | 344.87$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 68c | 176.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 174.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 68c | 162.64$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 25c | 152.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…242fbacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 84.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 79.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 64c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 53c | 75.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 32c | 73.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 68.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 63.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 61.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 64c | 61.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +27.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 59.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 1,128 | 55.4%625 W · 503 L | -30.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 26c | 59.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 28c | 53.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 567 | 26.1%148 W · 419 L | -20.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 44.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 25c | 43.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 68c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 36c | 41.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 36.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 30c | 35.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 48c | 34.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 32.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 31c | 32.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 194 | 21.6%42 W · 152 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 272 | 41.9%114 W · 158 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 52c | 31.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 66c | 28.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +53.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 75c | 27.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 230 | 66.5%153 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 50c | 26.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 62c | 24.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa387…3d3cbacked No | 65c | 23.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 60c | 22.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 21.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 62c | 19.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 75c | 17.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 65c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 426 | 30.3%129 W · 297 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.