NFL · resolved market
Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66d2802f0f93016dee30d9ec420d77ee40882cc900c3e6498031817f64d7e7b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seahawksof Seahawks, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Cardinals | 50c | 4,745$2,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,372.7 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Seahawks | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Seahawks | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Seahawks | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Seahawks | 48c | 990.42$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.22 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Cardinals | 52c | 990.42$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.22 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Cardinals | 50c | 748$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Seahawks | 50c | 654.61$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.31 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Seahawks | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Seahawks | 50c | 350$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Seahawks | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Cardinals | 51c | 276.87$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Seahawks | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 106 | 24.5%26 W · 80 L | -12.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cardinals | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…0673backed Cardinals | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…6af9backed Cardinals | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Seahawks | 49c | 194.12$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Seahawks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Cardinals | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf9…48e2backed Cardinals | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd24…b40fbacked Seahawks | 50c | 20.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)this page
- Seahawks vs. CardinalsSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Cardinals: O/U 43.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. Cardinals: O/U 44.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. Cardinals: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.