NFL · resolved market
Seahawks vs. Cardinals: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b83b7e2c6245d943d602312865cff55c70f1354ab9b1beae77b886b52a9d00f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 48c | 30,000$14,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,499.96 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Over | 52c | 17,724$9,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,216.48 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 51c | 9,522$4,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,849.86 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 2,800$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.05 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Over | 52c | 2,201$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.55 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 52c | 1,935$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.08 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…dc42backed Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Under | 50c | 317.8$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.08 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 48c | 286.18$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.81 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd7…51fcbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 29c | 149.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Under | 49c | 103$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad0…16d0backed Under | 49c | 98.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x894a…3d3cbacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Over | 51c | 58.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b5…a1f2backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Over | 51c | 36.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a45…36dcbacked Over | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Over | 52c | 20.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seahawks vs. Cardinals: O/U 43.5this page
- Seahawks vs. CardinalsSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Cardinals: O/U 44.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. Cardinals: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.