Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67004135f0f3503641bca769710103754c99c7f55c1a2da617e1afe98429305c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 71c | 979.53$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.99 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 51c | 435.29$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 404.3$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 56c | 372$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.18 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed Yes | 36c | 323.64$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.08 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 301.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 50c | 245.08$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.7 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 50c | 242.43$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.22 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 203.51$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 14c | 193.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 154.6$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 143.79$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.81 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 142.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 139.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 74c | 135.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 15c | 131.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 126.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 54c | 114$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 110.9$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 28c | 106$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 38c | 103$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 50c | 97.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 32c | 94.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 25c | 92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 87.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 47c | 85.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 84.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 36c | 78.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 26c | 73.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 69.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 66.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…2f9abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 59.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 50c | 59.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 18c | 58.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 25c | 50.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 44c | 48.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 27c | 42.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 48c | 37.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 47c | 37.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2897backed Yes | 52c | 31.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 23.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…a8d7backed No | 49c | 21.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 16.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4df…4cacbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.