Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ddf4df6c3937da66f068c86bf6518ef7c43b4ae2fd1e7f4128ab9573570e034
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,525$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 693.93$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 74c | 549.02$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.91 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 51c | 524.98$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.49 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 55c | 356.12$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.57 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 315.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 289.99$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.3 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 268.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 256.56$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed Yes | 49c | 205.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 196$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 21c | 189.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.36 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 78c | 186.97$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.59 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 45c | 166.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 145.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 49c | 121.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 120.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 116.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 40c | 116$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 112.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 68c | 109.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 33c | 103$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 33c | 102.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 31c | 97.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 34c | 97.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 81.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 19c | 78.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 70c | 73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 69.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 32c | 68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 19c | 66.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 29c | 64.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 63.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 51c | 58.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 57.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 55.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 32c | 54.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 41c | 54.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 74c | 45.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 40c | 43.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 48c | 41.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 28c | 41.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 72c | 41.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 28c | 40.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 40c | 37.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 33.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 60c | 32.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…bde5backed Yes | 56c | 26.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 40c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…a8d7backed Yes | 57c | 23.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 68c | 22.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 62c | 20.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…c962backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 74c | 16.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.