Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebc19a1d2ca2268d1e01a9f993132246c3a1780e23ede88369bb5685ac85cbaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 5c | 4,636$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.67 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 5c | 3,512$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.75 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 11c | 3,084$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.92 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 10c | 1,199$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.82 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 77c | 1,067$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.99 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 699.18$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 64c | 404.59$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.49 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 296.43$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 180.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 19c | 163.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.06 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 52c | 152.15$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 32c | 141.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.36 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 140.26$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 64c | 126.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 12c | 96.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 21c | 96.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 87.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 75.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 20c | 75.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…12a9backed No | 76c | 66.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 62.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 57.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 42c | 56.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 25c | 51.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 20c | 51.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 50.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 23c | 46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 34c | 45.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 29c | 41.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 73c | 37.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed No | 71c | 37.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 34.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 76c | 31.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 72c | 29.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 25.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…536dbacked No | 77c | 22.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 79c | 20.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 69c | 17.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 72c | 15.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 70c | 14.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.