Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x670d4c20f3ce0214cfd7e04ae49b3e143355311459e203f73e58c72aad9ae2ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,036 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 16c | 1,028$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.36 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 885$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 18c | 700$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 16c | 530$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…7ad6backed Over | 17c | 300.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…39fabacked Over | 15c | 115.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Over | 16c | 92.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 17c | 60.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Under | 69c | 54.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…44e8backed Over | 31c | 48.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-2.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.