Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf0c8c9b793844b6e78d8607bffed91b736296defbe7d1a7d1f9a1d024fb96c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,840 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Under | 67c | 3,000$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.64 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Under | 68c | 2,880$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.6 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 32c | 2,677$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.45 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed Under | 68c | 1,471$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 1,283$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.08 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 28c | 1,237$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.44 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 23c | 885.33$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.55 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 34c | 700$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 22c | 700$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 24c | 557.5$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.8 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 70c | 554.82$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.27 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 31c | 397.08$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.42 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 68c | 379.99$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.62 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked Over | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 33c | 271$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 69c | 249.8$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 70c | 249.77$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 68c | 249.22$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Over | 33c | 244$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 33c | 239$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 78c | 229.62$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Over | 33c | 183.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeaa…e7efbacked Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4cea…0685backed Under | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 38c | 129.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 66c | 125.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 42c | 123.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…39fabacked Under | 72c | 115.6$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x791d…c32bbacked Over | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 68c | 111.52$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…f67dbacked Over | 32c | 99.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…a753backed Over | 29c | 92.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 71c | 83.01$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 40c | 69.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 29c | 65.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…5e78backed Over | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…c56dbacked Over | 33c | 53.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1c…afe2backed Over | 35c | 42.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…23c6backed Over | 31c | 38.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 67c | 37.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…99adbacked Over | 36c | 36.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5d…d375backed Under | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 68c | 32.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-2.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.