Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8838f830febc17932b4a6dfdd1adfbf22ce670a871d9579c6e58e0fe256342cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,089 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 5,917$2,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800.4 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 21c | 2,875$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,275.7 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 79c | 1,911$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.69 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed Over | 74c | 1,330$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.6 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 21c | 1,249$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.86 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 43c | 976.36$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.33 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 71c | 894.72$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.54 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…c898backed Over | 37c | 790$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 117 | 25.6%30 W · 87 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 72c | 556.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 500.49$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.09 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 80c | 430$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 75c | 417.7$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86f9…5286backed Over | 62c | 400$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Over | 51c | 378.43$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 16c | 288.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Under | 55c | 271.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…1c79backed Over | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x140d…a937backed Over | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 20c | 249.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.81 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 14c | 206.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 73c | 205.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -8.0wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 75c | 200.5$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…c413backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Under | 8c | 162.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +329.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 161.34$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.06 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 58c | 93.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 79c | 87.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 84.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 19c | 83.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 48c | 79.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…6714backed Over | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 54c | 67.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 22c | 65.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 47c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 20c | 62.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 51c | 58.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 61c | 50.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 59c | 39.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Over | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Over | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-2.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.