Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x670eefb7eccfcfe56adc799c88e421dfbfaf81f5c58fb9b2f5917540e4ffd0ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,957$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 2c | 935.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 735$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509b…c90cbacked Yes | 41c | 371.19$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 40c | 371.02$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.35 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 47c | 310.5$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.49 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 293.95$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…0b7ebacked Yes | 17c | 275.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 18c | 265.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 247.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 228.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 33c | 179.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.29 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 21c | 166.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 17c | 151.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 18c | 144.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 22c | 126.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 108.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…278dbacked Yes | 17c | 94.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 47c | 94.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 25c | 93.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 86.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 83.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 14c | 73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 16c | 71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed No | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 29c | 64.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 22c | 62.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 20c | 60.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 60.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 42c | 59.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed Yes | 24c | 57.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 29c | 53.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f07…63f3backed Yes | 20c | 51.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1285…cb7cbacked Yes | 28c | 50.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 70c | 49.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 26c | 49.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 25c | 49.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed No | 79c | 49.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…0b22backed Yes | 70c | 48.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 35c | 48.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked No | 55c | 47.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 23c | 46.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 23c | 45.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 43.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 42c | 42.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 67c | 41.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes | 25c | 40.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c7…ea4ebacked Yes | 45c | 39.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 77c | 32.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 32.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed Yes | 70c | 29.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 29.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 69c | 27.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 44c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 25.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 24.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 47c | 23.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 20.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…14a8backed No | 61c | 19.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 18.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 77c | 16.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…edfdbacked No | 72c | 15.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C or below on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.