TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on April 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,252
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,804

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,252 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfca2…0a7fbacked No2c1,297$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa271…2727backed No1c1,098$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.48520%0 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed No12c659.17$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2992028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes30c309.47$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.451,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No55c291.39$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfe4…d1c0backed Yes35c278.52$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.693441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb666…8f47backed No13c257.29$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.294535.6%16 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c244.43$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.4617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes61c240.89$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.45,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2232…e889backed Yes63c237$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.8216529.1%48 W · 117 L+12.9wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+62.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No19c236.5$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.427756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes31c202.12$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4642857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes45c191.23$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.973748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes28c159.17$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.947,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No27c132.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.461,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No8c131.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.531,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes29c121.36$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.171,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No66c120.92$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.384,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3af…33a9backed Yes43c110.52$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.39771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+27%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9897…eb2abacked No68c109.09$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.692055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4536…c729backed Yes37c102.61$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.14425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.560236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No62c98.49$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9228839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes25c97.83$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.374,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76a6…b7dcbacked No67c96.73$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.114834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c95.72$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.528,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d4…fa02backed No28c90.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.452846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No40c86.65$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5237533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3141…f16abacked Yes52c79.31$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.195563.6%35 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes47c77$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.816625.8%17 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes32c76.73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4633450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes39c74.42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6732830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No24c72.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.382,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes37c72.23$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc348…0b7ebacked Yes31c71.38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.253013.3%4 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-52.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes29c70.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0546232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b3e…b127backed Yes76c70$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.71758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes29c70$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.77728.6%22 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes32c69.62$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.349235.9%33 W · 59 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a38…16a5backed Yes48c69.48$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.135543.6%24 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No30c64.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1319547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x989a…b73fbacked Yes60c63.02$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3818164.1%116 W · 65 L+29.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes77c62.64$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.179877.6%76 W · 22 L+16.3wins+0.17per pick61cpaid+38.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0ff6…8ac5backed No62c62.19$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.277034.3%24 W · 46 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes23c60.55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.76848.5%33 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No33c59.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.871,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes51c58.31$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8216738.9%65 W · 102 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes69c58.15$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8522945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No70c57.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.151,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59c8…0247backed No68c57.51$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.342568%17 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No72c57.48$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.212,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa6…0062backed Yes76c56.95$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.712360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c55$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.263,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e9…dc76backed Yes78c50.32$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.21450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No40c49.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4999961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No72c49.14$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.533567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes36c46.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3012033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb347…0b22backed Yes23c46.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.714641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes22c46.1$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9611341.6%47 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes44c43.31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4331062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes52c43.09$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8318948.1%91 W · 98 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e66…52f5backed Yes33c42.87$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.886720.9%14 W · 53 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5946…5937backed Yes36c40.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No67c40.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.499,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes28c39.33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3128648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes32c38.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3256131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc342…c744backed No65c38.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.675349.1%26 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa58…895ebacked Yes53c36.68$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.392166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes74c35.61$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.327946.8%37 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb198…6291backed Yes32c35.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8413340.6%54 W · 79 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes41c34.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.432548%12 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05d4…ae97backed Yes42c32.55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.943641.7%15 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No61c31.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0520353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c30.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5783360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No76c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.854966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc362…14a8backed Yes65c29.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.623275%24 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+14%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc10f…7972backed Yes75c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick59cpaid+43%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes78c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5627463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2002…996bbacked Yes80c23.24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.656578.5%51 W · 14 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+22.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No69c22.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5527464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28c8…dc79backed Yes64c22.47$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No75c22.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.691,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e99…9584backed Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53762.2%23 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+27.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x63ac…3fc9backed No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.28366.3%55 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24b7…4a73backed No79c19.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.473278.1%25 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12b0…53b1backed No54c18.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1630%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No69c18.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9893837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.