College Football · resolved market
Spread: Toledo (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x671f3e947d2cffee3f5a94ab5e8eb06e98f7b76582946a92d3c867d957f3c618
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toledoof Toledo, Northern Illinois
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Toledo | 51c | 33,260$17,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,190.75 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Northern Illinois | 49c | 30,000$14,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,700 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Toledo | 51c | 26,078$13,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,778.16 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…f152backed Northern Illinois | 49c | 25,738$12,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,611.73 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Toledo | 51c | 12,373$6,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,119.88 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Northern Illinois | 48c | 9,994$4,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,762.38 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48be…73a8backed Toledo | 53c | 9,432$4,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,435.61 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Northern Illinois | 48c | 7,979$3,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,829.89 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Northern Illinois | 50c | 6,772$3,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,386 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Toledo | 50c | 3,506$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.22 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Northern Illinois | 49c | 3,500$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,713.67 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Northern Illinois | 48c | 3,500$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…9ed3backed Toledo | 52c | 2,886$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.4 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Northern Illinois | 50c | 1,663$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.5 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Toledo | 52c | 1,256$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.88 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Toledo | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…9305backed Northern Illinois | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Northern Illinois | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Toledo | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Northern Illinois | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Toledo | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Northern Illinois | 49c | 190$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Northern Illinois | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Northern Illinois | 49c | 150$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Toledo | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Northern Illinois | 48c | 111$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Toledo | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Northern Illinois | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…a537backed Toledo | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Toledo | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked Toledo | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b1…cd77backed Toledo | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…a488backed Northern Illinois | 50c | 37.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Northern Illinois | 48c | 37.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Toledo | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toledo (-14.5)this page
- Northern Illinois vs. ToledoToledo won
- Northern Illinois vs. Toledo: O/U 41.5Over won
- O/U 42.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.