College Football · resolved market
Northern Illinois vs. Toledo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7237d92b0a13a5bfd6f0a501484db802214387f21ffc6df3bb3bfd538e4ee45f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toledoof Northern Illinois, Toledo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Northern Illinois | 15c | 30,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,499.99 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Northern Illinois | 14c | 27,920$3,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,908.84 | 127 | 18.9%24 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce9…03e9backed Northern Illinois | 0c | 10,352$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Northern Illinois | 14c | 7,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.98 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Northern Illinois | 15c | 6,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.99 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Northern Illinois | 9c | 3,728$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.74 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Northern Illinois | 15c | 3,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Northern Illinois | 10c | 3,278$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.76 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Northern Illinois | 0c | 3,244$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Northern Illinois | 15c | 3,135$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.4 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Northern Illinois | 13c | 3,000$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.79 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…b7bfbacked Northern Illinois | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Northern Illinois | 17c | 1,800$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Northern Illinois | 16c | 1,200$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Northern Illinois | 14c | 1,145$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.82 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Northern Illinois | 8c | 1,098$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.41 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed Northern Illinois | 15c | 1,077$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.55 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Northern Illinois | 10c | 1,013$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Northern Illinois | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Northern Illinois | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Northern Illinois | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…98c9backed Northern Illinois | 10c | 803.77$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…f72fbacked Northern Illinois | 3c | 784.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…937abacked Northern Illinois | 15c | 683.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Northern Illinois | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…e393backed Northern Illinois | 16c | 291$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Northern Illinois | 16c | 234$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Northern Illinois | 12c | 225.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Northern Illinois | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd5…1306backed Northern Illinois | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Northern Illinois | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Northern Illinois | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1d…0374backed Northern Illinois | 16c | 194$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Northern Illinois | 16c | 180$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Northern Illinois | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed Northern Illinois | 10c | 135$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Northern Illinois | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Northern Illinois | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Northern Illinois | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Northern Illinois | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Northern Illinois | 15c | 79.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…b363backed Northern Illinois | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Northern Illinois vs. Toledothis page
- Northern Illinois vs. Toledo: O/U 41.5Over won
- O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: Toledo (-14.5)Toledo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.