Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 29-30°F on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x672192e409a6587f41d52d29fe06af72b8571bc9c6a5a39c4cb881e1dd8252f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $245,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $247,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c00…003abacked No | 58c | 118,000$68,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68,440 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…986cbacked Yes | 42c | 118,000$49,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,440 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…7e8abacked Yes | 54c | 942.2$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.47 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 23c | 657.05$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.84 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 43c | 573.4$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.83 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…23dabacked Yes | 52c | 346.25$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 282.29$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 268.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 54c | 238.79$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.04 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 31c | 193.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.34 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 63c | 183.37$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 47c | 181$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 62cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 76c | 136.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 49c | 125$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1416…c996backed Yes | 45c | 123.91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 38c | 106.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.79 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…f25dbacked Yes | 48c | 103.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 50c | 99.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…d0ebbacked Yes | 35c | 87.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc674…6633backed Yes | 44c | 83.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb15b…0a40backed No | 69c | 82.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 28c | 70.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…e92abacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…b69fbacked Yes | 38c | 69.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…dac7backed Yes | 67c | 67.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c31…309dbacked No | 61c | 62.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013e…5e95backed No | 73c | 53.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 44c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 34c | 44.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…0810backed Yes | 46c | 43.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…64f1backed Yes | 72c | 40.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ee…5a82backed Yes | 35c | 38.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 56c | 36.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…9aeabacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…970abacked Yes | 36c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc644…48a6backed Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…ecefbacked Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012e…27c1backed Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4535…e7d1backed Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…2013backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e6…0810backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5366…2667backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…b45dbacked Yes | 49c | 27.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…088bbacked Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…e563backed Yes | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3321…08c4backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…05d2backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…0aedbacked No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bd…fa66backed No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde71…b9c4backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…5efdbacked No | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…954abacked No | 66c | 19.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9673…42bcbacked No | 68c | 19.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…a46abacked Yes | 63c | 19.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b5…3bdfbacked No | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05cd…d104backed No | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…07eebacked No | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…6521backed No | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e8…8b27backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890f…d0cabacked No | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529b…0299backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc919…54d7backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a4…087dbacked No | 63c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c9…4afcbacked No | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a53…348dbacked No | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff6…f991backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a39…1b13backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1a…446ebacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…3e5dbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…f554backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61db…a2f5backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9692…bf1fbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 29-30°F on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 24°F or below on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 35°F or higher on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 25-26°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 27-28°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.