Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca1c19d2f90b4d9debe0738bfdf828a1d829ec1a2a39d7395dc0b2417ed343c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5350…cbc2backed Yes | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 9c | 734.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 520.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 302.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…7afdbacked Yes | 19c | 256.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f32…1066backed Yes | 47c | 255.57$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 27c | 233.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 11c | 224.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked Yes | 14c | 176.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 20c | 142.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 21c | 106.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 14c | 104$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2d…27e6backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 18c | 80.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 18c | 58.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 64c | 50.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe145…4bf4backed Yes | 30c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a73…4594backed Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…d297backed Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…eb39backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a5…c876backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…dc9bbacked Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…9eacbacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ee…ac0abacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b6…9f0fbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…6b49backed No | 73c | 27.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…e92abacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a2…6238backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…34d3backed No | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…49ccbacked No | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…e5f5backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…8510backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…0092backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…0085backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c36…c0d5backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…6447backed No | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a32…6b21backed No | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f2…f60ebacked No | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…1f43backed No | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb0…e022backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…bd1cbacked No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…da48backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…811bbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2299…aa11backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343e…2849backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…14dbbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5427…fc98backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…60a3backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01bc…aba4backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c70…7aeabacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6d…c8f6backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…c4eabacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a1…480dbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…121fbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…c59fbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0f…8a55backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…2585backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…20c3backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78a…2103backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…b5aabacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 24°F or below on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 35°F or higher on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 25-26°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 27-28°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 29-30°F on February 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.