Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayern München vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x672b29023aaa7cf4e25c513b327bd233f1e37247ab5f53e679a11771034aca67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 33c | 7,274$2,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,401.52 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11cf…2674backed Over | 76c | 4,429$3,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.11 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 2,004$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.89 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…762dbacked Over | 74c | 1,500$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…07f2backed Over | 76c | 824.76$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.94 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 700.63$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.82 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 679.23$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.12 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…5a53backed Over | 76c | 470.7$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 23c | 378.6$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 24c | 333.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked Under | 9c | 292.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed Over | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 25c | 237$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +5.4wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 24c | 222.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…b039backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…fc20backed Over | 76c | 151.75$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Over | 41c | 117.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.07 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…d960backed Under | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…c2e3backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 24c | 80.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 36 | 88.9%32 W · 4 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Under | 56c | 66.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…a408backed Over | 76c | 65.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b4…b283backed Over | 76c | 61.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Over | 75c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Over | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 75c | 39.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 75c | 29.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Over | 59c | 24.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec0…82ddbacked Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…bc89backed Over | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Over | 77c | 15.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayern München vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 2.5this page
- Bayern München vs. FC St. Pauli: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayern München vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayern München vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Bayern München (-2.5)FC St. Pauli won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.