TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: Bayern München (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FC St. Pauliof Bayern München, FC St. Pauli
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$188,164
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$204,581

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,164 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Bayern München51c114,113$58,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,729.227447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed FC St. Pauli51c71,653$36,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,256.253,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98b5…b6bebacked FC St. Pauli49c16,524$8,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,427.492100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x010c…62bbbacked FC St. Pauli48c14,057$6,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,307.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Bayern München54c13,164$7,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,059.344443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked FC St. Pauli48c11,977$5,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,187.471330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed FC St. Pauli49c8,163$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,163.255954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b7…35d6backed FC St. Pauli50c7,340$3,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6701100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked Bayern München52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1205152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked FC St. Pauli49c5,151$2,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,628.245052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked FC St. Pauli47c4,362$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,291.57062.9%44 W · 26 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed FC St. Pauli46c4,301$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,310.2656547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf778…2f09backed Bayern München42c3,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.994522.2%10 W · 35 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-45.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Bayern München53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.989854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf82e…5089backed FC St. Pauli48c2,833$1,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed FC St. Pauli51c2,353$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked FC St. Pauli47c2,205$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.881,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Bayern München53c2,177$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1548336.1%30 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked FC St. Pauli47c2,131$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.9278248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab0e…4b76backed Bayern München27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bayern München34c1,800$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.2853645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked Bayern München51c1,764$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.822040%8 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b4…1014backed Bayern München53c1,261$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6651330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed FC St. Pauli49c986.24$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.9816850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Bayern München53c934.6$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-51.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Bayern München52c909.99$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.210057%57 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe930…b44dbacked Bayern München26c899.58$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.933537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d94…40e6backed Bayern München25c799.7$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.931040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Bayern München51c733$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.3818545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed Bayern München45c710.51$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.410728%30 W · 77 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked FC St. Pauli48c691$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.318764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed FC St. Pauli54c629.76$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.084452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+12%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed FC St. Pauli47c587.22$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.2314254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Bayern München20c550$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11011630.2%35 W · 81 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Bayern München51c505.88$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2585444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Bayern München52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2605635.7%20 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Bayern München50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked Bayern München56c500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Bayern München51c499.99$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2551040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed FC St. Pauli47c492.67$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.9644749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf732…1c73backed FC St. Pauli51c431.37$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Bayern München52c427.45$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.86350.8%32 W · 31 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Bayern München52c421.08$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.962142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2510…621cbacked Bayern München51c394.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e5e…93ccbacked Bayern München52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fa…6745backed FC St. Pauli50c349.3$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…b1b1backed Bayern München53c332.88$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.831315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.29per pick45cpaid-62%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked FC St. Pauli48c331$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.7924258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked FC St. Pauli48c308$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.7111860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed FC St. Pauli47c307.67$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.714327.9%12 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…eca0backed Bayern München50c307.1$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.552548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Bayern München48c306.05$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.0615453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Bayern München54c277.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked Bayern München27c263.96$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703930.8%12 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed FC St. Pauli48c247$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.4312162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4417…01eebacked Bayern München21c244.28$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.382650%13 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked FC St. Pauli47c231.99$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7210552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked FC St. Pauli48c218.25$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed FC St. Pauli48c206$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.7125659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed FC St. Pauli48c201$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.6322854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Bayern München50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed FC St. Pauli50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10033340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…db98backed Bayern München50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb97e…4d9abacked Bayern München25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked FC St. Pauli48c197$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.638461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed FC St. Pauli48c197$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.6313256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Bayern München53c196.36$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1042638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ead…3183backed Bayern München52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked FC St. Pauli48c165$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.6315454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x127a…ca3cbacked Bayern München51c156.86$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805054%27 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Bayern München49c153.06$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Bayern München53c150$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.52759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed FC St. Pauli49c135$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3814355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd22…7025backed Bayern München54c134.45$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Bayern München50c134$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675940.7%24 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+47.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked FC St. Pauli50c126$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636747.8%32 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x888c…e9ecbacked Bayern München18c124.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed FC St. Pauli49c112$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.556464.1%41 W · 23 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed FC St. Pauli49c112$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5511563.5%73 W · 42 L+13.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9264…bca3backed Bayern München55c109.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7555…ce17backed Bayern München55c109.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0da5…5adfbacked Bayern München55c108.32$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed FC St. Pauli48c101.61$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.556959.4%41 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Bayern München50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Bayern München53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539937.4%37 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9714…3014backed Bayern München53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.40per pick54cpaid-71.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb531…b230backed Bayern München30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301560%9 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+28.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ea0…d265backed Bayern München50c99.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed FC St. Pauli48c99.6$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.1210150.5%51 W · 50 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed FC St. Pauli48c99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3813957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed FC St. Pauli48c99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.388864.8%57 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked FC St. Pauli48c98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.556460.9%39 W · 25 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed FC St. Pauli48c98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5512259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed FC St. Pauli48c98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.555459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa204…e66fbacked FC St. Pauli48c98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.555459.3%32 W · 22 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked FC St. Pauli48c98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.556162.3%38 W · 23 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked FC St. Pauli48c98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.555461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed FC St. Pauli48c98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.555757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed FC St. Pauli48c98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5512757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked FC St. Pauli48c98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5512657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.