Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Bayern München (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5791d120d530b7296a59bf16c9397670aeef4c0c5b622e4ca98819c7c7a02a89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC St. Pauliof Bayern München, FC St. Pauli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $188,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $204,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bayern München | 51c | 114,113$58,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,729.22 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC St. Pauli | 51c | 71,653$36,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,256.25 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b5…b6bebacked FC St. Pauli | 49c | 16,524$8,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,427.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x010c…62bbbacked FC St. Pauli | 48c | 14,057$6,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,307.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Bayern München | 54c | 13,164$7,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,059.34 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked FC St. Pauli | 48c | 11,977$5,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,187.47 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed FC St. Pauli | 49c | 8,163$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,163.25 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…35d6backed FC St. Pauli | 50c | 7,340$3,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,670 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Bayern München | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked FC St. Pauli | 49c | 5,151$2,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,628.24 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked FC St. Pauli | 47c | 4,362$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,291.5 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed FC St. Pauli | 46c | 4,301$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,310.26 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Bayern München | 42c | 3,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.99 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Bayern München | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.98 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82e…5089backed FC St. Pauli | 48c | 2,833$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…44e5backed FC St. Pauli | 51c | 2,353$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked FC St. Pauli | 47c | 2,205$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.88 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Bayern München | 53c | 2,177$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked FC St. Pauli | 47c | 2,131$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.92 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…4b76backed Bayern München | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bayern München | 34c | 1,800$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.28 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Bayern München | 51c | 1,764$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.82 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…1014backed Bayern München | 53c | 1,261$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed FC St. Pauli | 49c | 986.24$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.98 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Bayern München | 53c | 934.6$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Bayern München | 52c | 909.99$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.2 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…b44dbacked Bayern München | 26c | 899.58$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.93 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed Bayern München | 25c | 799.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Bayern München | 51c | 733$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.38 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Bayern München | 45c | 710.51$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.4 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked FC St. Pauli | 48c | 691$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.31 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed FC St. Pauli | 54c | 629.76$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.08 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed FC St. Pauli | 47c | 587.22$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.23 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Bayern München | 20c | 550$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Bayern München | 51c | 505.88$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Bayern München | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Bayern München | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ba…621fbacked Bayern München | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Bayern München | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed FC St. Pauli | 47c | 492.67$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.96 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf732…1c73backed FC St. Pauli | 51c | 431.37$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Bayern München | 52c | 427.45$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.8 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Bayern München | 52c | 421.08$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.96 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…621cbacked Bayern München | 51c | 394.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…93ccbacked Bayern München | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fa…6745backed FC St. Pauli | 50c | 349.3$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Bayern München | 53c | 332.88$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.83 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -62%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked FC St. Pauli | 48c | 331$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.79 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked FC St. Pauli | 48c | 308$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.71 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed FC St. Pauli | 47c | 307.67$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.71 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…eca0backed Bayern München | 50c | 307.1$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.55 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Bayern München | 48c | 306.05$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.06 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Bayern München | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Bayern München | 27c | 263.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed FC St. Pauli | 48c | 247$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.43 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…01eebacked Bayern München | 21c | 244.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked FC St. Pauli | 47c | 231.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.72 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…5e1dbacked FC St. Pauli | 48c | 218.25$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed FC St. Pauli | 48c | 206$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.71 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed FC St. Pauli | 48c | 201$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.63 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Bayern München | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed FC St. Pauli | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Bayern München | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…4d9abacked Bayern München | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked FC St. Pauli | 48c | 197$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.63 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed FC St. Pauli | 48c | 197$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.63 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Bayern München | 53c | 196.36$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…3183backed Bayern München | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked FC St. Pauli | 48c | 165$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Bayern München | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Bayern München | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Bayern München | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed FC St. Pauli | 49c | 135$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…7025backed Bayern München | 54c | 134.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Bayern München | 50c | 134$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked FC St. Pauli | 50c | 126$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888c…e9ecbacked Bayern München | 18c | 124.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed FC St. Pauli | 49c | 112$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed FC St. Pauli | 49c | 112$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +13.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed Bayern München | 55c | 109.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Bayern München | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Bayern München | 55c | 108.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed FC St. Pauli | 48c | 101.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Bayern München | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Bayern München | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Bayern München | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb531…b230backed Bayern München | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea0…d265backed Bayern München | 50c | 99.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed FC St. Pauli | 48c | 99.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed FC St. Pauli | 48c | 99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed FC St. Pauli | 48c | 99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked FC St. Pauli | 48c | 98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed FC St. Pauli | 48c | 98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | +11.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed FC St. Pauli | 48c | 98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked FC St. Pauli | 48c | 98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked FC St. Pauli | 48c | 98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked FC St. Pauli | 48c | 98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed FC St. Pauli | 48c | 98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed FC St. Pauli | 48c | 98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked FC St. Pauli | 48c | 98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 126 | 57.9%73 W · 53 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bayern München (-2.5)this page
- Bayern München vs. FC St. Pauli: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayern München vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayern München vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bayern München vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.