TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Bayern München vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,247
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,220

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,247 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under49c20,132$9,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,912.233,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf4…952ebacked Over55c13,110$7,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,945.66875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+32.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over54c11,090$5,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,101.387447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under47c9,628$4,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,507.5875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Over56c5,464$3,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,386.3955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over44c3,314$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,853.753645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under45c2,184$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.91,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under46c2,098$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.9156547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under25c1,575$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.452,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa645…0be6backed Over55c1,516$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.31862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+80%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Under48c1,247$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.2251136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under46c1,111$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.0615742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over54c925.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.9318759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Over55c669.81$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.415940.7%24 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+47.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Under42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21015024%36 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x933a…d3c1backed Over57c499.99$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick22cpaid+399.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under45c499.99$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22511036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x172d…6f3ebacked Over63c398.6$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.69062.2%56 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under46c383.98$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.2344749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfde0…c21cbacked Over55c369.52$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under45c366.91$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.4411040.9%45 W · 65 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Under57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over59c309.34$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.0514157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Over48c305$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.72951.7%15 W · 14 L+5.4wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+257.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0d0a…0809backed Under40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203125.8%8 W · 23 L-4.8wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xea68…ff92backed Under52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over68c250$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806347.6%30 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+99.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x78a4…ea47backed Over55c199.27$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.671942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Over51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0819943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under46c189.78$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.333340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Under48c188.26$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.914452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+12%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe333…cf5fbacked Over55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.822152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Over54c180$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.82661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Under49c179.35$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x024e…2e48backed Over45c170$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.91838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over55c167$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5418545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76da…30a2backed Over66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.524949%24 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe300…8a97backed Over34c147.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.062100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+117.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc460…0aa4backed Over55c145.45$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.452839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1af…f6c1backed Over67c141.34$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over55c136.36$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.363016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-56.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x68df…4320backed Over54c129$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf676…b039backed Over60c125$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Under44c116$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5676234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under38c107.4$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2616542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…2da5backed Over44c102.27$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479350.5%47 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Under46c99.87$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.134327.9%12 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051c…f25dbacked Over55c91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.953839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x485f…f682backed Over58c85.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc32e…203dbacked Over64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.132166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Under46c76.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359542.1%40 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc6…bfb4backed Over54c74.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…48bbbacked Over55c73.75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.19450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Over57c70.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.181464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x78ab…b958backed Under66c70$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed Under43c69.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.793455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe398…ee2ebacked Over63c67.77$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.773688.9%32 W · 4 L+8.1wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+31.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6344…0602backed Under64c67$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51f6…368cbacked Under78c64.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under44c62.84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3978248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb0…8826backed Over49c59.18$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.183161.3%19 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Under46c56.93$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0d…79cbbacked Over54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.56966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+33.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under45c54.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.710150.5%51 W · 50 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x652b…813dbacked Over59c50.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.59173.6%67 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4f1…6349backed Over55c49.09$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.092100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Under46c47.39$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.82334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a9c…598dbacked Over55c45.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.451060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x406c…bdc6backed Under51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed Over54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.041163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Over55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.363571.4%25 W · 10 L+4.8wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6fc8…8198backed Over59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.92853.6%15 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefb2…b043backed Over59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8460…0c1fbacked Under43c27.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.89540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf23a…6eb8backed Over52c26.9$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over65c26.15$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.157867.9%53 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9d3…93ebbacked Over64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa916…4f30backed Over55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.25862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc38d…48e3backed Under50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101090%9 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick69cpaid+27.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ed0…b051backed Under67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeedf…1483backed Over54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.23852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.