Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in June 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x677e0014b5d3948366907fc44dc8bb702e63ba4b01cb488d768a7e856fc66ab9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,539$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.45 | 131 | 19.8%26 W · 105 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 2c | 1,282$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 599$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…8d02backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 12c | 313.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859b…d03abacked Yes | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes | 14c | 240.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 13c | 187.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 124.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x610e…b852backed Yes | 13c | 115.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 16c | 78.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 15c | 78.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Yes | 14c | 75.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in June 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in June 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in June 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in June 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in June 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in June 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in June 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <400 tweets in June 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.