Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67a2ba01ceea29589df4de701b9d60a45242eeaaffa6e77ba80ce434dc89621f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 12c | 231.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 18c | 217.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 15c | 205.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 13c | 127$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 63c | 125.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 13c | 107.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 17c | 95.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 14c | 94.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 28c | 92.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 13c | 89.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 15c | 86.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 45c | 67.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 53c | 62.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 71c | 62.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 66c | 60.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 67c | 59.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe750…c6babacked Yes | 71c | 54.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 46c | 50.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 46.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed No | 30c | 46.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 51c | 45.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 44c | 45.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…c0e3backed Yes | 70c | 42.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8255…56b3backed Yes | 57c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 69c | 28.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 64c | 28.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…a47fbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 74c | 24.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 72c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.