Bundesliga · resolved market
Hannover 96 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67a4880493d8a01cb1364548c7e63a671b7b5ce6b02309f4f04a9ca9908d3a15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5af4…183cbacked Under | 39c | 2,564$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 36c | 2,197$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.75 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Over | 61c | 2,080$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.18 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 40c | 959.5$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 641.17$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.86 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 47c | 495.74$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.61 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 44c | 444.5$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.37 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 235.21$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.78 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 61c | 196.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 63c | 174.07$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…e679backed Under | 37c | 163.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 54c | 152.96$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 37c | 149.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 36c | 140.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 57c | 105.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde0…3b13backed Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Under | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 37c | 54.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 38c | 41.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 56c | 29.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Over | 59c | 25.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 62c | 24.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Over | 64c | 16.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hannover 96 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5this page
- Hannover 96 vs. SC Preußen Münster: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hannover 96 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 3.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)SC Preußen Münster won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.