Bundesliga · resolved market
Hannover 96 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cbd10a52981fa12ca24abea2aa8efc4f64f63928f7c968a3898ac94ea09b32f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 2,102$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.92 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 29c | 2,063$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.55 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 1,909$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.63 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 537.42$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.03 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 40c | 502.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.08 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 39c | 498.53$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.1 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88d…f708backed Over | 33c | 242.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.42 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Over | 32c | 110$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 46c | 109.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 38c | 84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 59c | 73.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf692…dd55backed Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 61c | 70.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Under | 61c | 58.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 63c | 57.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Under | 61c | 54.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Over | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 61c | 46.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 60c | 45.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 38c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 62c | 34.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 61c | 30.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 58c | 24.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 20.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 60c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 65c | 19.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Under | 60c | 17.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hannover 96 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 3.5this page
- Hannover 96 vs. SC Preußen Münster: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hannover 96 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hannover 96 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)SC Preußen Münster won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.