Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67b4cd76e295cc7b8becb7b1bfda56839a8b404829b092733a0f131a0e2fdba7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 343.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 18c | 283$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.06 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 77c | 232.47$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 204.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.84 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 19c | 200$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.1 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 19c | 194$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 15c | 163.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 152.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 14c | 143.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 29c | 118.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 38c | 116.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed Yes | 20c | 99.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.14 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 99.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 90.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 27c | 84.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…0220backed No | 16c | 74.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 63c | 70.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 80c | 63.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 73c | 54.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 77c | 53.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 37c | 36.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 69c | 28.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 76c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…56f5backed Yes | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 80c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.