Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27f6bc2a33f6ca886cc2ea1f0fc37124da402f54b04dc328287ededfecb41454
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 75c | 2,985$2,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.5 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 1,113$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.16 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 540.22$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 7c | 507.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 363.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 323.3$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 70c | 262.24$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.27 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 24c | 251.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 31c | 165.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 146.3$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 35c | 140$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 135.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 12c | 111.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 32c | 94.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 24c | 92.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 69c | 85.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 69c | 81.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 18c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 71.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 65c | 69.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 72c | 68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 27c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 63.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 30c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…ead3backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 44.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 66c | 39.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e7cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -80%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 36c | 28.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 65c | 19.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 71c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 70c | 16.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 64c | 16.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.