CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Black Phoenix - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67c2ba58f45a0a39d80a56e844b864fb73872f2763daf03a47a122940f59e7dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HOTUof HOTU, Black Phoenix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf03c…add8backed HOTU | 80c | 16,453$13,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,297.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Black Phoenix | 21c | 2,879$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.62 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…4f76backed Black Phoenix | 17c | 2,657$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.79 | 519 | 42.2%219 W · 300 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked Black Phoenix | 20c | 1,998$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.91 | 631 | 57.1%360 W · 271 L | +40.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…aa7dbacked Black Phoenix | 23c | 1,969$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.17 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Black Phoenix | 17c | 999.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Black Phoenix | 4c | 999.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 576 | 41.1%237 W · 339 L | -21.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Black Phoenix | 23c | 869.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 323 | 44.3%143 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Black Phoenix | 17c | 825.27$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.47 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Black Phoenix | 23c | 782.21$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.17 | 1,033 | 53.2%550 W · 483 L | +64.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…4389backed HOTU | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 375 | 57.3%215 W · 160 L | -16.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Black Phoenix | 19c | 589.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.88 | 1,083 | 42.1%456 W · 627 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Black Phoenix | 23c | 535.1$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.47 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…cc48backed Black Phoenix | 22c | 508.46$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed Black Phoenix | 10c | 499.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 190 | 35.8%68 W · 122 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c76…fcc2backed Black Phoenix | 21c | 459.72$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Black Phoenix | 25c | 423.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.29 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Black Phoenix | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Black Phoenix | 24c | 323.48$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Black Phoenix | 18c | 297.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Black Phoenix | 18c | 233.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 334 | 48.2%161 W · 173 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…aceebacked Black Phoenix | 16c | 231.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…8238backed Black Phoenix | 29c | 200.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked HOTU | 75c | 141.17$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…bf81backed Black Phoenix | 35c | 138.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 351 | 48.1%169 W · 182 L | -13.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba9…1a4ebacked Black Phoenix | 18c | 111.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked HOTU | 71c | 103.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed Black Phoenix | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 456 | 45.2%206 W · 250 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed Black Phoenix | 19c | 92.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…ec6fbacked Black Phoenix | 20c | 90.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Black Phoenix | 18c | 88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked HOTU | 64c | 86.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 384 | 69.5%267 W · 117 L | +31.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Black Phoenix | 25c | 74.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…2aeebacked Black Phoenix | 17c | 66.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed HOTU | 71c | 66.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Black Phoenix | 19c | 53.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Black Phoenix | 24c | 52.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed HOTU | 70c | 50.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 413 | 72.2%298 W · 115 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked HOTU | 78c | 42.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Black Phoenix | 27c | 41.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed HOTU | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a1…ceb5backed Black Phoenix | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x104b…e9cebacked HOTU | 74c | 26.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 184 | 81.5%150 W · 34 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb47…4737backed HOTU | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 121 | 76%92 W · 29 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…6371backed HOTU | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Black Phoenix - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group StageHOTU won
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Black Phoenix - Map 1 WinnerHOTU won
- Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs Black Phoenix (+1.5)HOTU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.