CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b1f9e97c7f05478035446c758bc3c7e2fe21c9dc4ae6471b57a62841655807f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HOTUof HOTU, Black Phoenix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Black Phoenix | 23c | 4,250$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.49 | 1,408 | 33.7%475 W · 933 L | +43.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Black Phoenix | 11c | 3,933$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.37 | 569 | 41.3%235 W · 334 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…4389backed HOTU | 77c | 1,500$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 370 | 57.3%212 W · 158 L | -16.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Black Phoenix | 20c | 1,228$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.82 | 5,810 | 37.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L | +78.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd07…8d16backed HOTU | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbadb…31a7backed Black Phoenix | 16c | 999.96$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…bc19backed HOTU | 77c | 974.03$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.03 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…1654backed Black Phoenix | 23c | 882.23$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.65 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c7…ac3bbacked HOTU | 76c | 544.84$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.76 | 754 | 52.7%397 W · 357 L | +27.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…a74cbacked Black Phoenix | 23c | 525.44$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03c…add8backed HOTU | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked HOTU | 77c | 461.09$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…5408backed HOTU | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…88f9backed Black Phoenix | 20c | 380$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 463 | 54%250 W · 213 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4adf…d623backed HOTU | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 61 | 73.8%45 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed HOTU | 77c | 258.44$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked HOTU | 77c | 257$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 1,476 | 51.8%765 W · 711 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed Black Phoenix | 22c | 236.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 717 | 39.6%284 W · 433 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Black Phoenix | 14c | 219$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 2,330 | 42.5%991 W · 1,339 L | -71.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Black Phoenix | 14c | 215.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 2,491 | 41.1%1,023 W · 1,468 L | -114.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Black Phoenix | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 448 | 39.1%175 W · 273 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed HOTU | 77c | 194.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed HOTU | 80c | 187.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Black Phoenix | 14c | 187.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 2,119 | 42.9%909 W · 1,210 L | -66.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Black Phoenix | 6c | 180$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 163 | 11.7%19 W · 144 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Black Phoenix | 10c | 171.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 676 | 45%304 W · 372 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…6c15backed Black Phoenix | 31c | 161.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed HOTU | 80c | 158.19$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Black Phoenix | 10c | 155.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e7…6036backed HOTU | 77c | 128.39$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Black Phoenix | 22c | 113.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 1,605 | 52.6%845 W · 760 L | +57.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed HOTU | 79c | 103$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 482 | 51.7%249 W · 233 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Black Phoenix | 13c | 99.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 2,467 | 24.6%606 W · 1,861 L | -318.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Black Phoenix | 11c | 93.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 4,040 | 50.9%2,057 W · 1,983 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…be99backed HOTU | 80c | 91.66$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Black Phoenix | 21c | 88.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +12.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed HOTU | 77c | 66.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked HOTU | 68c | 51.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 4,661 | 43.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed HOTU | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Black Phoenix | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 388 | 35.8%139 W · 249 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e69…7a30backed HOTU | 79c | 47.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed HOTU | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 237 | 62.9%149 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1273…8eddbacked HOTU | 77c | 38.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed HOTU | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 548 | 50%274 W · 274 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked HOTU | 76c | 19.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4b…e6edbacked HOTU | 80c | 18.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x395a…eb72backed HOTU | 79c | 15.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…68a0backed HOTU | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed HOTU | 77c | 13.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 185 | 63.2%117 W · 68 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Black Phoenix - Map 1 WinnerHOTU won
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Black Phoenix - Map 2 WinnerHOTU won
- Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs Black Phoenix (+1.5)HOTU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.