CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Black Phoenix - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4f4065ca6b5b3c9851e4572093b28342a8d0a417d8e74e69a31910b386fd844
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HOTUof HOTU, Black Phoenix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Black Phoenix | 24c | 921.94$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.73 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…889fbacked HOTU | 63c | 878.22$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.98 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…917ebacked HOTU | 69c | 715$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.43 | 277 | 40.8%113 W · 164 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…4f76backed HOTU | 80c | 713.93$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.93 | 519 | 42.2%219 W · 300 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…4389backed HOTU | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 375 | 57.3%215 W · 160 L | -16.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked Black Phoenix | 31c | 394.05$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 631 | 57.1%360 W · 271 L | +40.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Black Phoenix | 16c | 375$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 1,083 | 42.1%456 W · 627 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Black Phoenix | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Black Phoenix | 15c | 283$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed Black Phoenix | 41c | 274.43$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed HOTU | 67c | 209.03$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…8f43backed Black Phoenix | 33c | 206$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 138 | 40.6%56 W · 82 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f5…9bcfbacked HOTU | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed HOTU | 62c | 186.05$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.83 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed HOTU | 68c | 160$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 550 | 39.6%218 W · 332 L | -20.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf19…8869backed Black Phoenix | 29c | 135.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Black Phoenix | 16c | 118$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ef…647cbacked Black Phoenix | 47c | 107.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…fb5bbacked HOTU | 71c | 101.64$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 410 | 54.6%224 W · 186 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed HOTU | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 538 | 50.6%272 W · 266 L | -15.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Black Phoenix | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Black Phoenix | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 217 | 50.7%110 W · 107 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Black Phoenix | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked HOTU | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Black Phoenix | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Black Phoenix | 33c | 50.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Black Phoenix | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 388 | 35.8%139 W · 249 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Black Phoenix | 26c | 49.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Black Phoenix | 27c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed Black Phoenix | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 457 | 48.1%220 W · 237 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483b…f0a3backed HOTU | 68c | 33.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked HOTU | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed HOTU | 53c | 21.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 700 | 42.3%296 W · 404 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Black Phoenix - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group StageHOTU won
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Black Phoenix - Map 2 WinnerHOTU won
- Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs Black Phoenix (+1.5)HOTU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.