Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67d09ae39123ccd6d8556a4cd0758167397eda07bfe48901726b1509c410c218
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 562.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 348.95$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 293.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 231.89$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 46c | 208.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 194.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 58c | 185.25$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 179.83$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 41c | 163.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 46c | 150.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 42c | 138.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 33c | 121.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 52c | 115.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 115.17$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 25c | 106.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 105.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 50c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 51c | 96.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 14c | 88.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 50c | 82.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 56c | 72.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 38c | 68.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 24c | 61.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 36c | 55.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 68c | 48.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 29c | 46.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed No | 77c | 44.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 43.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 42.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 39.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c32…093ebacked Yes | 46c | 39.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 37.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 37.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 32c | 37.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed Yes | 39c | 35.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 34.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 66c | 33.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 68c | 32.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de4…8b3cbacked Yes | 43c | 31.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f4…89d3backed Yes | 47c | 30.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9194…9a04backed Yes | 53c | 28.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 55c | 27.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 43c | 25.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 66c | 24.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 69c | 21.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd314…12d9backed No | 71c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 55c | 18.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 18.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 80c | 18.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 62c | 18.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 17.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.