Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2e4405368a1d140fb0116fb5b2ae6174b95db4437d91ccc1f0c2a4bc3888be8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 279.56$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 40c | 206.78$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 206.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 56c | 174.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 162.73$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 64c | 155.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 150.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 146.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 145.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 30c | 141.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 27c | 138.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 122.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 115.17$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 49c | 107.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 105.88$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 49c | 102.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 97.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 85.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed Yes | 45c | 85.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 85.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 41c | 78.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 33c | 76.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 35c | 68.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 46c | 65.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 64.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 70c | 61.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 58.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 46c | 56.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 70c | 56.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 50c | 54.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 44c | 50.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 67c | 49.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 31c | 46.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 44.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 43.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 67c | 41.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 68c | 40.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 31c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 35.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 36c | 33.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…6905backed Yes | 36c | 32.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 49c | 31.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed No | 51c | 28.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 60c | 27.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 25.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 21.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 67c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…e8c6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae71…9750backed No | 74c | 19.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 80c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 80c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 80c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 80c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 80c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 76c | 17.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 16.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 80c | 14.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.