Olympics · resolved market
Sweden vs. Slovakia: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67e65841158455b1a544a373eb8bac8397ebcf5de7de11c4e649901830b25dc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d4c…41c4backed Over | 58c | 312.97$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 60c | 230.96$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…cc01backed Under | 42c | 108.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 51c | 102.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…687ebacked Under | 42c | 102.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d6…4c63backed Under | 42c | 101.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 40c | 99.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…eb6abacked Over | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…8fe5backed Under | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…af03backed Over | 70c | 66.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbe…59f6backed Over | 22c | 59.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…8795backed Under | 38c | 57.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe616…ef15backed Over | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…a160backed Under | 46c | 43.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…4dd4backed Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…92a2backed Over | 56c | 35.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sweden vs. Slovakia: O/U 5.5this page
- Men's Group B - Sweden vs. SlovakiaSweden won
- Spread: Sweden (-1.5)Sweden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.