MLB · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6809b69817ae1a6a2f7753a46ecd66f42f2b5eff63f500d7c424ece489ebed31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Cardinals, Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Reds | 1c | 47,924$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.98 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Cardinals | 43c | 20,000$8,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,399.99 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Reds | 57c | 16,674$9,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,485.62 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Reds | 47c | 12,500$5,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,920 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Reds | 57c | 12,167$6,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,878.14 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Cardinals | 56c | 8,316$4,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,690.79 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Reds | 2c | 5,420$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.2 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Cardinals | 53c | 3,853$2,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.67 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Reds | 57c | 2,531$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Cardinals | 45c | 2,222$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.95 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd656…d127backed Cardinals | 52c | 2,139$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.49 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Cardinals | 42c | 1,594$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.53 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Cardinals | 45c | 1,584$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.2 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cardinals | 42c | 1,375$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.97 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Reds | 55c | 1,132$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.71 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Reds | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Reds | 58c | 858.97$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cardinals | 43c | 828.17$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.85 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Reds | 44c | 637.05$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.3 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Reds | 57c | 600$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Reds | 58c | 420$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.6 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Cardinals | 45c | 419.44$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.16 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Reds | 58c | 350.98$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.44 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cardinals | 43c | 336.11$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.95 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Reds | 55c | 333$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.15 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cardinals | 43c | 298.86$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.03 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Cardinals | 44c | 230.65$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.65 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Cardinals | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Reds | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Reds | 51c | 186$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.56 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Cardinals | 40c | 121.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Reds | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Cardinals | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Cardinals | 44c | 57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Reds | 58c | 41.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Cardinals | 45c | 39.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Reds | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Reds | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Reds | 60c | 32.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Reds | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6350…ae47backed Cardinals | 44c | 31.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Cardinals | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc4…24b9backed Cardinals | 44c | 27.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Cardinals | 50c | 26.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…465bbacked Cardinals | 44c | 25.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183d…5814backed Reds | 57c | 25.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…fdeabacked Cardinals | 49c | 25.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cardinals | 45c | 24.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…ea96backed Reds | 57c | 24.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa62c…9a08backed Reds | 57c | 24.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Cardinals | 46c | 23.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe70…33f9backed Cardinals | 44c | 23.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2883…9e14backed Reds | 57c | 22.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…8b5ebacked Reds | 58c | 21.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdf…c524backed Reds | 57c | 21.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Reds | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Reds | 57c | 17.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,086 | 46.2%502 W · 584 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.