Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x680afc7d310ec1ed27419649bb6e4eb27171c6000a1b1869e46e045d1ca90950
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Noskova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,845 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…d83abacked Noskova | 30c | 3,350$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.49 | 131 | 35.9%47 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Sabalenka | 69c | 2,742$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.37 | 1,277 | 56.6%723 W · 554 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Sabalenka | 70c | 1,465$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.64 | 369 | 68%251 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Noskova | 30c | 1,009$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.39 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Noskova | 32c | 936.64$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.03 | 373 | 30.3%113 W · 260 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…4392backed Noskova | 33c | 686.27$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.47 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Sabalenka | 69c | 579.71$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.71 | 683 | 50.1%342 W · 341 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…71babacked Sabalenka | 78c | 511.55$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.1 | 285 | 52.3%149 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Sabalenka | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Noskova | 19c | 344.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…6ac9backed Sabalenka | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Noskova | 33c | 254.37$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Noskova | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Sabalenka | 67c | 186.57$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Sabalenka | 68c | 183.79$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 245 | 60%147 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Noskova | 36c | 132.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Noskova | 31c | 115.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Noskova | 31c | 105.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…d3dabacked Noskova | 34c | 103.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Sabalenka | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 240 | 55%132 W · 108 L | -15.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7874…2767backed Sabalenka | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Noskova | 33c | 92.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 958 | 46.6%446 W · 512 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed6d…d729backed Sabalenka | 67c | 67.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Noskova | 35c | 60.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Sabalenka | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Sabalenka | 68c | 44.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…215cbacked Sabalenka | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Noskova | 33c | 43.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…2b95backed Sabalenka | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59ef…475cbacked Sabalenka | 65c | 41.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b4…17b1backed Noskova | 35c | 35.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…df81backed Sabalenka | 69c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd402…5a50backed Sabalenka | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 296 | 61.5%182 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked Sabalenka | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Sabalenka | 69c | 26.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebcb…dd4bbacked Sabalenka | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Sabalenka | 65c | 20.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Sabalenka | 67c | 16.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 142 | 57%81 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f77…8463backed Sabalenka | 68c | 15.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Sabalenka | 68c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5)this page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda NoskovaAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Noskova: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Noskova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs NoskovaSabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.