Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x103ed52199c6d7776c4e216f2ac745c4323ea6ba2b5d874c846e7310b52bf15f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aryna Sabalenkaof Aryna Sabalenka, Linda Noskova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $494,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $494,806 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Linda Noskova | 0c | 59,327$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Linda Noskova | 12c | 36,038$4,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,324.53 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Linda Noskova | 9c | 24,188$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197.92 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed Linda Noskova | 12c | 24,000$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Linda Noskova | 1c | 19,179$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.79 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…008ebacked Linda Noskova | 3c | 18,291$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.56 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…1f13backed Linda Noskova | 12c | 16,590$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,931.42 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Linda Noskova | 9c | 14,499$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.91 | 747 | 43.6%326 W · 421 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Linda Noskova | 12c | 13,464$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.66 | 785 | 36.1%283 W · 502 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Linda Noskova | 13c | 10,616$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.13 | 971 | 41.4%402 W · 569 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Linda Noskova | 13c | 8,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.99 | 168 | 25%42 W · 126 L | -14.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Linda Noskova | 3c | 7,255$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.76 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Linda Noskova | 12c | 6,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Linda Noskova | 12c | 5,843$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.15 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Linda Noskova | 8c | 5,692$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.93 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Linda Noskova | 4c | 3,293$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Linda Noskova | 2c | 3,082$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Linda Noskova | 9c | 2,691$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.85 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f82cbacked Linda Noskova | 13c | 2,562$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Linda Noskova | 1c | 2,406$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 255 | 0.8%2 W · 253 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…84c1backed Linda Noskova | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Linda Noskova | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a0…da35backed Linda Noskova | 4c | 1,903$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 479 | 46.3%222 W · 257 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c14…d8fbbacked Linda Noskova | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Linda Noskova | 2c | 1,478$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…d83abacked Linda Noskova | 10c | 1,303$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.34 | 131 | 35.9%47 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Linda Noskova | 2c | 1,300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 683 | 50.1%342 W · 341 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Linda Noskova | 12c | 1,201$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.56 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Linda Noskova | 13c | 1,066$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.58 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…4795backed Linda Noskova | 2c | 1,056$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Linda Noskova | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Linda Noskova | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 469 | 32%150 W · 319 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17a…c30dbacked Linda Noskova | 12c | 999.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Linda Noskova | 2c | 936.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2628…757bbacked Linda Noskova | 2c | 929.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3918…b552backed Linda Noskova | 1c | 899.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Linda Noskova | 12c | 834.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.22 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7123…59b9backed Linda Noskova | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…f6bfbacked Linda Noskova | 2c | 752.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Linda Noskova | 3c | 722.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Linda Noskova | 13c | 662.46$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Linda Noskova | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 123 | 22%27 W · 96 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…3f91backed Linda Noskova | 11c | 497.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…ca81backed Linda Noskova | 13c | 479.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 217 | 20.3%44 W · 173 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Linda Noskova | 13c | 431.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 958 | 46.6%446 W · 512 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c7…bea7backed Linda Noskova | 12c | 416.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 664 | 52.3%347 W · 317 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628a…6d8fbacked Linda Noskova | 4c | 405.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…934ebacked Linda Noskova | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4364backed Linda Noskova | 13c | 308.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Linda Noskova | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked Linda Noskova | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Linda Noskova | 13c | 229$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Linda Noskova | 13c | 223$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Linda Noskova | 12c | 199.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Linda Noskova | 11c | 178.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1,729 | 48.9%845 W · 884 L | +53.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…4132backed Linda Noskova | 14c | 145.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…77eebacked Linda Noskova | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 819 | 33.1%271 W · 548 L | -30.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Linda Noskova | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Linda Noskova | 13c | 103.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Linda Noskova | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 423 | 53.7%227 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Linda Noskova | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 155 | 12.9%20 W · 135 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Linda Noskova | 11c | 97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Linda Noskova | 12c | 85.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Linda Noskova | 18c | 69.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskovathis page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Linda Noskova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Sabalenka vs. Noskova: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Noskova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs NoskovaSabalenka won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.