College Football · resolved market
Iowa State vs. Arkansas State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x681017130b6ebd5f1ed595be515d7d649356336fa013a3ff9bf4e141d239990f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa Stateof Iowa State, Arkansas State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Arkansas State | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Arkansas State | 10c | 3,638$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.19 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Iowa State | 74c | 3,003$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.19 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Arkansas State | 7c | 2,287$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.8 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…f0f8backed Arkansas State | 9c | 1,114$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Arkansas State | 7c | 1,090$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Arkansas State | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Arkansas State | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Arkansas State | 24c | 808$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Arkansas State | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…392cbacked Arkansas State | 17c | 441.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Arkansas State | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Arkansas State | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Arkansas State | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arkansas State | 13c | 248.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddb…d3cdbacked Arkansas State | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Arkansas State | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Arkansas State | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…5d2cbacked Arkansas State | 28c | 177.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Arkansas State | 17c | 175.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c8…2ff9backed Arkansas State | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed Arkansas State | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc0…4ce8backed Arkansas State | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Arkansas State | 21c | 49.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iowa State vs. Arkansas Statethis page
- Spread: Iowa State (-21.5)Arkansas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.