MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6824bdc0303003fe11013fc00d81370af1a134f4ac9dc800486d65eb2923f447
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Minnesota Twins | 73c | 2,048$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.03 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 27c | 1,171$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 27c | 1,141$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 637$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Minnesota Twins | 74c | 513$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.62 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 505$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.6 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Minnesota Twins | 42c | 502.29$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.46 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 415.95$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.42 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked San Diego Padres | 27c | 366.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.82 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 26c | 317.16$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 7c | 269$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 79c | 214$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.73 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 26c | 203$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.22 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 178$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.06 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed San Diego Padres | 21c | 163.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.11 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…26b3backed San Diego Padres | 27c | 82.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 71c | 71.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked San Diego Padres | 27c | 69.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed San Diego Padres | 19c | 65.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed San Diego Padres | 27c | 39.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 33.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Minnesota Twins | 40c | 29.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 16.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.