NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x682ed7acff21e3a9da521c6c945704e50ef3944a8d1d128fb7a367eb497d12f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 75c | 3,694$2,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.52 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 24c | 1,575$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.91 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Under | 25c | 1,360$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.12 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 25c | 1,070$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.5 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 21c | 1,048$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.07 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 79c | 1,045$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.52 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 25c | 437.45$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.36 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 79c | 233.82$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…0071backed Over | 76c | 217.11$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 23c | 189.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…7dcbbacked Over | 77c | 128.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f15…a3fcbacked Under | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 23c | 119.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8157…f5b2backed Under | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Under | 23c | 99.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Under | 23c | 99.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 20c | 88.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 21c | 57.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Under | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Under | 23c | 49.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…04a7backed Over | 76c | 47.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 79c | 46.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Under | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…850abacked Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…8746backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7dd…12f0backed Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 77c | 38.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 76c | 26.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7d…c564backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…d91dbacked Over | 78c | 21.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5this page
- Canadiens vs. HurricanesCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.