Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6855e2e163de8c46393610fe576e523567d6e3562f56923487c834acafc94499
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 565$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…e6f1backed Yes | 15c | 366.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 202.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 189.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…b50ebacked Yes | 27c | 181.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 27c | 181.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 176.88$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 17c | 169.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…6272backed Yes | 17c | 151.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 146.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 24c | 144.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 137$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 74c | 134.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 23c | 129.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 123.49$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 27c | 112.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…e8d0backed No | 76c | 110.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 110.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 25c | 100.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 92.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 88.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 82.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 24c | 72.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 78c | 72.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 26c | 71.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 64.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 60.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 24c | 57.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 56.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 22c | 55.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc88f…5e95backed Yes | 22c | 53.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked No | 76c | 52.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 51.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 26c | 44.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 39.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ae…9156backed No | 80c | 35.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 73c | 35.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 76c | 33.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 77c | 29.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 79c | 25.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 77c | 20.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…1989backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 77c | 16.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 16.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a847backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 75c | 14.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.