Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefb0555d55b2b7801236733824ae74f36c5da01475a9fe764d2bc76b6fa1a9cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe86…4a1ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,395$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 9c | 947.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 509.82$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 28c | 249.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 238$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 218.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 13c | 188.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 80c | 171.51$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 19c | 156.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 14c | 149.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 27c | 145.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 25c | 105.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 104.93$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 10c | 104.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…e8d0backed No | 74c | 99.64$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 76c | 95.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 75.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 73c | 75.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 76c | 67.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 64.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1ecbbacked Yes | 29c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 25c | 52.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 26c | 48.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 73c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 26c | 47.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 43.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37c…eb1fbacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 76c | 30.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 29.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 27.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 76c | 20.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…79a1backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…df3abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 75c | 19.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a5…437ebacked No | 75c | 18.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 75c | 17.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 77c | 14.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.