Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa543a19b264077ef1a26a632c58500c93f29a5ccab0b4e8f0323b681e3ef3d10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 61c | 987.13$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.94 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 915.52$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 58c | 513$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.84 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…313cbacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.16 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 468.01$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 423.83$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 76c | 339.31$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.89 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 325.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.44 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 302.07$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.28 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 55c | 299.64$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.57 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 294.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 282.44$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 23c | 255$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.26 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed No | 55c | 217.03$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.37 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 213.14$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 21c | 211.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.3 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 15c | 206.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.7 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 201$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.81 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 22c | 199.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.83 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 16c | 184.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.93 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 6c | 156.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.25 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 41c | 138.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 136.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 78c | 135.89$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 39c | 131.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.59 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 129.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 40c | 109.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 21c | 101.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.82 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 40c | 100.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed No | 51c | 97.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 51c | 97.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 56c | 88.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 14c | 88.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 45c | 86.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 19c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 19c | 84.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 46c | 83.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…78dabacked Yes | 15c | 78.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.41 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 78.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 16c | 76.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 74.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 71.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 68.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 41c | 66.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 31c | 65.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 42c | 64.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 23c | 64.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…0a43backed Yes | 51c | 59.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 46c | 59.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 46c | 57.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 57.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed No | 28c | 57.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 20c | 57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc4…4d11backed Yes | 20c | 54.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 34c | 51.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 55c | 51.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 44c | 42.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 48c | 41.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe7…88e7backed No | 61c | 41.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 48c | 40.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 51c | 38.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 51c | 38.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 53c | 37.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 56c | 35.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67f…d9b3backed No | 69c | 34.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc88f…5e95backed Yes | 47c | 33.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 58c | 33.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed Yes | 66c | 31.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked Yes | 79c | 28.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 69c | 27.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 50c | 27.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 43c | 27.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 54c | 26.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 66c | 25.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…b89cbacked Yes | 45c | 24.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x792e…b01cbacked Yes | 80c | 22.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 19.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 79c | 18.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 60c | 18.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 71c | 17.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 76c | 14.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.