Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x686a4d647e5ace60e8cf37a9873224d96b621326b92b66da611404e2dcd442cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yunnan Yukun FCof Beijing Guoan FC, Yunnan Yukun FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Beijing Guoan FC | 44c | 743.02$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.47 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yunnan Yukun FC | 56c | 324.83$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.93 | 825 | 42.4%350 W · 475 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yunnan Yukun FC | 57c | 280.73$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.71 | 1,434 | 35.2%505 W · 929 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yunnan Yukun FC | 55c | 123.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 1,707 | 50.6%863 W · 844 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yunnan Yukun FC | 56c | 101.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Beijing Guoan FC | 43c | 88.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Beijing Guoan FC | 36c | 80.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Beijing Guoan FC | 44c | 71.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 1,617 | 36.3%587 W · 1,030 L | -34.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Beijing Guoan FC | 43c | 66.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 1,760 | 50.3%885 W · 875 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Yunnan Yukun FC | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Beijing Guoan FC | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Yunnan Yukun FC | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed Yunnan Yukun FC | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Beijing Guoan FC | 48c | 48.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 922 | 35.1%324 W · 598 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Beijing Guoan FC | 43c | 34.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44dc…802dbacked Yunnan Yukun FC | 56c | 30.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Beijing Guoan FC | 39c | 28.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2,397 | 37.8%905 W · 1,492 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Beijing Guoan FC | 45c | 25.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 735 | 38.6%284 W · 451 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yunnan Yukun FC | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 708 | 42.5%301 W · 407 L | -26.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…e42cbacked Yunnan Yukun FC | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…000ebacked Yunnan Yukun FC | 61c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)this page
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: Yunnan Yukun FC O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Yunnan Yukun FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.